Governor George W. Bush of Texas sparked controversy last week when he claimed that the nation was experiencing an "education recession." This statement led to a debate on the interpretation of national test data and received a strong response from the Secretary of Education.

According to Governor Bush, under the Clinton-Gore administration, National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) scores in reading, mathematics, and science have remained stagnant or declined. He also noted that achievement gaps between rich and poor, as well as minority and white students, have widened.

During his campaign in Western states, Governor Bush repeatedly emphasized that "America is in the midst of an education recession" and even released a television advertisement featuring this statement.

Not long after, Democrats retaliated. They claimed that SAT and NAEP reading scores had actually increased over the past eight years, and students were taking more math and science classes. Vice President Al Gore’s campaign stated that if Bush were elected, all 50 states would face an education recession.

The Secretary of Education, Richard W. Riley, a strong supporter of Vice President Gore, issued a strongly-worded response to Governor Bush, who had used a quote from Riley to support his "recession" argument. In a speech at an Oregon elementary school, Governor Bush questioned the focus on "relationships, resilience, and readiness" in education policy, asking, "What happened to reading?"

In response, Riley issued a statement criticizing Governor Bush, stating that his accusation that reading had been neglected was false and misleading.

Governor Bush’s decision to base his claims on NAEP data raised concerns within the testing community. Experts pointed out that interpreting the data can be challenging, especially due to the changing demographics of student populations.

A member of the Bush campaign staff stated that they extensively analyzed NAEP and other test data before the governor made his claims. They concluded that test scores had improved in the 1970s and 1980s but had stagnated in the past decade. They viewed this as a recession since any halt in progress is considered a recession.

However, Daniel M. Koretz, a senior social scientist with the RAND Corp., argued that Governor Bush had misrepresented the NAEP results. Koretz stated that it is difficult to make a case for a recession because the data shows slow, inconsistent improvement. He believed that even a flat trend is positive considering the increasing diversity of the population.

On the other hand, Mr. Cody expressed that it is the state policies that seem to have a stronger influence compared to federal programs. He expressed skepticism about the immediate impact of any single federal policy.